What problem this solves
Most programs suffer from “status theater”: narrative updates without verifiable evidence.
When reality diverges, leaders find out late—after options have narrowed.
What changes when evidence is the default
Confidence becomes a measurable signal: forecasts state assumptions and confidence explicitly.
Health is anchored to indicators: variance trends, milestone hit rate, decision aging, and risk burn-down.
Stakeholders stop arguing opinions and start making decisions with shared facts.
What “evidence-based” means in practice
Health calls (Green/Yellow/Red) are linked to evidence, not confidence.
Forecasts include explicit assumptions and a confidence level.
Every status cycle ends with a short list of decisions required to unblock delivery.
A simple, repeatable weekly pack
Status: health + variance + confidence + “decisions needed.”
RAID: risks/issues/assumptions/dependencies with owners, mitigations, and aging.
Decision log: owner, options, rationale, and follow-ups.
Forecast update: what changed, why, and what evidence supports it.
How to use this
Adopt a weekly status pack (Status + RAID + Decision Log + Forecast).
Define sources of truth in week 1; baseline measurement in the first 30 days.
Common failure modes (and fixes)
Failure mode: evidence exists but is hard to access → Fix: link evidence at the point of decision.
Failure mode: metrics without action → Fix: each indicator must trigger an owner and next step.
Failure mode: “everything is green” → Fix: require confidence + assumptions and track variance over time.